Roundtable: January 27, 2026
Earnings Day Special: ROP reported Q4 2025 this morning. Stock down 9.6%. The troika convenes to answer: tantrum or thesis break?
Market Context
A pivotal day for the experiment. ROP reported Q4 earnings before market open, missing organic growth expectations. The stock dropped 9.6% to $369, breaching our $380 ADD target. Meanwhile, 11 stocks on the watchlist triggered alerts, but all eyes are on ROP.
⚠️ ROP Earnings Released Today
Q4 2025 Results (reported premarket Jan 27):
- Adj. EPS: $5.21 vs $5.14 expected (BEAT +1.4%)
- Revenue: $2.06B vs $2.08B expected (MISS -1.6%)
- Q4 Organic Growth: +4% (below 5% checkpoint)
- FY2025 Organic Growth: +5% (below 6% target)
- 2026 Guidance: 5-6% organic (below 6-7% expected)
Management Quote: "We're not starting the year assuming organic growth will inflect in 2026." — Neil Hunn, CEO
ROP Checkpoint Scorecard
We set falsifiable checkpoints in our January 23 roundtable. Here's how they scored:
| Checkpoint | Target | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 Organic Growth | ≥5% | +4% | FAIL |
| FY2025 Organic Growth | ≥6% | +5% | WATCH |
| 2026 Guidance | 6-7% organic | 5-6% organic | FAIL |
| Management Tone | Confident | "Not assuming inflection" | FAIL |
| Exit Criteria (<4% for 2+ quarters) | Not triggered | At threshold (4%), not below | NOT TRIGGERED |
The Central Question
ROP dropped 9.6% and breached our $380 ADD target. The system says "add." But the earnings missed our checkpoints. Do we follow the price signal or the fundamental signal?
ROP (Roper Technologies) — Post-Earnings Troika
Status: We own 10 shares at $400 (filled Jan 21). Now trading at $369.27 (-7.7% from entry).
HOLD (78% confidence)
Claims:
- Forward P/E 15.8x is objectively cheap vs historical 25-30x range
- Price $369 breached $380 ADD target — mechanically we "can" add
- But organic growth came in at 4% — at the exit threshold, not above it
- Signal has information content, not pure panic
- Position already ~18% of portfolio — concentration risk
HOLD (75% confidence)
Claims:
- "Tantrum with information" — this is NOT pure Mr. Market panic
- Deltek facing "DOGE effect" — government budget uncertainty is real
- DAT freight volumes still weak — cyclical headwind
- Management explicitly cautious — not sandbagging, genuinely uncertain
- 16x P/FCF is historically cheap, but "cheap for a reason"
HOLD
Agreement: Both analysts agree: do NOT add immediately just because price crossed $380. The ADD target was set before we knew guidance would be 5-6% (not 6-7%).
Resolution: This is exactly what the troika is designed for — slowing down when price moves fast and fundamentals shift. The system worked.
• Original ADD target: $380
• New ADD target: $350 (compensates for guidance miss)
• CUT trigger: Q1 2026 organic <4% (second consecutive miss)
- Upgrade trigger: Q1 organic ≥4% with Deltek stabilization
- Downgrade trigger: Q1 organic <4% (exit criteria met)
Tantrum vs Signal: The Evidence
- Beat EPS, stock down 13%
- 5-6% organic still above 4% exit
- P/FCF 16x vs 25-35x historical
- CEO bought $4.5M at $452 in Nov
- $6B+ M&A/buyback capacity
- Q4 organic 4% (below checkpoint)
- "Not assuming inflection"
- Deltek DOGE risk, DAT weak
- Guidance below consensus
- Revenue miss (not just EPS beat)
Other Candidates (Brief)
Ten other stocks triggered alerts today. Quick verdicts:
| Ticker | Price | Signal | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| V | $325.26 | +4.9% from $310 target | HOLD GTC — Earnings Jan 29, let limit work |
| MSFT | $480.58 | +6.8% from $450 target | HOLD — Own 10 shares, earnings tomorrow |
| GE | $297.47 | +6.2% from $280 target | NONE — Already reported (beat), P/E 35+ high |
| CB | $301.47 | +7.7% from $280 target | HOLD GTC — Insurance solid, let limit work |
| TYL | $426.16 | +6.5% from $400, near 52w low | WATCH — P/E 59 high, gov budget risk |
| BAC | $52.17 | +8.7% from $48 target | NONE — Not close enough, set GTC |
Final Decisions
| Ticker | Auditor | Narrator | Final | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROP | HOLD (78%) | HOLD (75%) | HOLD | Do NOT add. New ADD target $350. Wait for Q1. |
| MSFT | HOLD (85%) | HOLD (80%) | HOLD | Own 10 shares. Earnings tomorrow. |
| V | NONE (80%) | NONE (75%) | NONE | GTC at $310.18 working. Earnings Jan 29. |
| All Others | No action. Maintain existing GTCs. | |||
📝 Lesson Logged
ROP Jan 27, 2026:
"System worked as designed. Price dropped 9.6% and breached $380 ADD target, but troika correctly identified this as 'tantrum with information content' — not pure panic. Guidance miss justified revising ADD target from $380 to $350. Discipline > action."
Contrast with TYL/FICO lesson trades: Those were emotional buys without troika approval. This was disciplined patience with troika consensus. The difference is process, not outcome.
Q1 2026 Checkpoints (~April)
| Metric | PASS | FAIL |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Growth | ≥4% | <4% (exit trigger) |
| Deltek Commentary | Stable/improving | Further deterioration |
| DAT Freight | Stabilizing | Continued weakness |
| Management Tone | Confident | Still cautious |
If Q1 PASSES: ADD at $350-$370 becomes attractive.
If Q1 FAILS: Exit criteria triggered — reassess entire position.
What We're Watching
- Tomorrow, Jan 28: MSFT earnings after close (Azure ≥15% is our checkpoint)
- Tomorrow, Jan 28: WM earnings after close (FCF margins ≥12%)
- Thursday, Jan 29: V earnings after close (Payment volume ≥5%)
- ~April 2026: ROP Q1 earnings (organic growth checkpoint)
Next roundtable convenes after tomorrow's MSFT and WM earnings.