Roundtable: January 30, 2026
Yesterday's fills came in. Today we set GTCs and refine our entry methodology.
Market Context
A quieter day after yesterday's drama. No Track 2 tantrums today — just 7 Track 3 candidates near targets. The market is digesting the AI spending reality check, and our positions from yesterday are settling in.
Key insight: This is a "set GTCs and wait" day, not an "add more" day.
✅ Yesterday's Fills (Jan 29)
All three orders filled — at better prices than our limits!
| Ticker | Ordered | Filled | vs Limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 5 @ $445 | 2 @ $433.50 | -$11.50 better |
| ROP | 5 @ $380 | 2 @ $365.29 | -$14.71 better |
| TYL | 2 @ $400 | 2 @ $380.03 | -$19.97 better |
Note: Partial fills on MSFT and ROP (2 shares instead of 5). This leaves capacity for future adds.
Updated Positions
| Ticker | Before | Added | Now Own | New Avg Cost | Current | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 10 @ $450 | 2 @ $433.50 | 12 shares | $447.25 | $430.29 | -3.8% |
| ROP | 20 @ $400 | 2 @ $365.29 | 22 shares | $396.85 | $371.23 | -6.5% |
| TYL | 2 @ $445.85 | 2 @ $380.03 | 4 shares | $412.94 | $369.40 | -10.5% |
| WM | 10 @ $218.06 | $218.06 | $222.24 | +1.9% | ||
| FICO | 1 @ $1,623.97 (lesson) | $1,623.97 | $1,463.17 | -9.9% | ||
📐 Methodology Refinement: Entry Limits
The Issue: Yesterday we set limits at our target prices ($445, $380, $400) when stocks were already trading below those levels. We filled, but still paid more than necessary as stocks kept falling.
The Fix: We agreed mid-session to use prior day's close instead of targets. Better, but still not optimal.
New Rule (effective today):
Limit at prior day's LOW, unless the stock recovered strongly from a sharp opening fall (recovery suggests buyers stepped in at that level — use judgment).
Example:
- Stock opens -8%, hits low $360, closes $380 → Use $360 (the low)
- Stock opens -8%, hits low $360, rallies to close $395 → Use ~$380 (recovery shows support)
Today's Troika Debate
MSFT — Just Added Yesterday
Auditor: ADD at $445 (78%) — Below ADD target, rules say buy
Narrator: WATCH (60%) — AI capex concerns, capacity constraints through fiscal year
Arbiter: HOLD — We just added yesterday. Let the position settle before considering more. Now own 12 shares.
ROP — Just Added Yesterday
Auditor: ADD at $380 (74%) — Below ADD target
Narrator: ADD (75%) — DOGE headwind real but FCF intact, not assuming inflection
Arbiter: HOLD — We just added yesterday. Let the position settle. Now own 22 shares.
TYL — Just Started Yesterday
Auditor: START at $400 (67%) — Below START target, high multiple risk
Narrator: WATCH (65%) — Multiple compression victim, gov budget uncertainty
Arbiter: HOLD — We just started yesterday. Let the starter position work before adding at $380. Now own 4 shares.
GTCs to Set Today
These stocks are approaching targets. We should have orders working.
| Ticker | Current | Target | Distance | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | $1,463.17 | $1,400 | +4.5% | SET GTC $1,400 × 1 share |
| WM | $222.24 | $210 | +5.8% | SET GTC $210 × 3 shares |
| GE | $306.79 | $280 | +9.6% | SET GTC $280 × 2 shares (P/E high, small size) |
Existing GTCs (No Change)
| Ticker | GTC Price | Shares | Current | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | $310.18 | 3 | $321.83 | +3.8% |
| CB | $280.00 | 12 | $309.56 | +10.6% |
| CPRT | $34.97 | 60 | $40.58 | +16.0% |
| CVX | $149.47 | 15 | $176.90 | +18.4% |
| PWR | $350.35 | 5 | $474.63 | +35.5% |
Final Decisions Summary
| Ticker | Auditor | Narrator | Final | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ADD (78%) | WATCH (60%) | HOLD | Just added. Let settle. |
| ROP | ADD (74%) | ADD (75%) | HOLD | Just added. Let settle. |
| TYL | START (67%) | WATCH (65%) | HOLD | Just started. Let settle. |
| FICO | GTC (70%) | — | GTC | Set $1,400 × 1 |
| WM | GTC (73%) | HOLD (80%) | GTC | Set $210 × 3 |
| GE | GTC (68%) | — | GTC | Set $280 × 2 |
| V | HOLD (82%) | — | NONE | GTC working |
| Others | NONE | — | NONE | Watch / GTCs working |
📝 Lessons Logged
Entry Execution (Jan 29-30):
"Setting limits at target prices when stocks are already trading below those levels leaves money on the table. New rule: use prior day's LOW as the limit, unless strong intraday recovery suggests support at a higher level. The goal is to catch the falling knife at the lowest reasonable price, not just 'at target.'"
Post-Fill Patience (Jan 30):
"After making three buys yesterday, both Auditor and Narrator wanted to add more today. The Arbiter overruled: let positions settle for at least a day or two. Discipline means not just following entry rules, but also pacing our deployment."
What We're Watching
- MSFT/ROP/TYL: Let positions settle; reassess Monday
- V ($321 → $310 target): Only 3.8% away — could fill soon
- FICO ($1,463 → $1,400 target): Set GTC today — 4.5% away
- TYL earnings Feb 12: Key catalyst for government software thesis
- ROP Q1 (~April): Organic growth checkpoint — exit if <4%
Next roundtable convenes Monday.